Are the Cardinals...good?
What a difference a week makes. What a difference a year makes.
Never too high, never too low. It’s one of the many mantras espoused by Coach Gannon, typically with his trademark low-lying cap partially obscuring his face, during one of the countless press conferences he’s endured during his first 18 months at the helm of the Cardinals. ‘Never too low’ has certainly been challenged during his tenure. How could you not be distraught after Clayton in Cleveland? ‘Never too high’ has suffered in peace. Seldom in fear of testing. To be too high, you’d have to be high at all in the first place. Of course, some of us have been high at points. But high as in cautiously optimistic high. Look on the bright side high. IwanttobelieveIreallydobutdoireallywanttotrustagainandletmyselfbehurtagainsosoonafterlasttimeidontknow high. Well that was until the 41-10 complete and utter demolition of the Rams on Sunday.
Now i’m just plain ol’ high.
Let’s start with the stats. By EPA/play, the Cardinals had the second best offense and third best defense in the NFL in week 2. If you watched the game, that much isn’t surprising. That’s what happens when you do this.
And this.
And this.
And so much, much more.
Kyler Murray put up one of the best quarterback performances in recent memory. James Conner continues to Benjamin Button. Marvin Harrison Jr isn’t a bust. The tight-end room is as diverse and exciting as any in the league. And the defence. Somehow there’s now evidence of a pass-rush? Ish. Budda Baker looked like a Pro Bowler again. The coverage was okay, even good at points. And more than anything else, the Los Angeles Rams, perennial play-off contenders, complete with the SB winning, universally beloved coach & quarterback combo of Sean McVey and Matt Stafford, could not, in any way, from the first moment, till the very end, at all, handle the sheer physicality of the Arizona Cardinals. That’s a crazy thought in and of itself. The Cardinals hadn’t beaten the Rams at home since they were the St. Louis Rams. And yet this time, they never had a chance.
So it begs the question.
Are the Cardinals… good?
As in good good. Not Super Bowl good. Not first-round bye good. But good good. The sort of good that beats teams that are there to be beaten. That destroys teams that are there to be destroyed. That could win against any team in the league and it not be considered an earth-shattering fluke. That could beat the Detroit Lions at home on Sunday?
Maybe.
As good as the result against Rams was. There are some mitigating factors to consider. Firstly, for all their success in recent years and their stature within the game, this was not the Rams of old. Star wide receivers either missing or beat up, an offensive line so injured it had Cardinals fans reminiscing about Lecitus Smith and Max Garcia, and a defensive front without Hall of Fame lock, arguable greatest defensive player of all time, perennial pain in the ass, Aaron Donald. This was one of those teams that was there to be beaten.
Secondly, whilst there are promising signs, this defense, as a whole, still needs to prove it won’t consistently be the thorn that breaks the metaphorical camel’s side. Mack Wilson has been fun, excelling in his ‘what if Isaiah Simmons was good’ role in lining up 24 times at outside linebacker, 28 times at off-ball linebacker and 9 times at slot corner, so far this season. Garrett Williams has been tremendous as part of a decidedly average (complimentary) cornerbacks crew, and himself is 4th in the league in snaps per reception at slot cornerback. Zaven looks improved in his second year at the position, despite his primary asset at outside linebacker continuing to be his ability in coverage, not his pass-rush prowess. In fact, the edge group as a whole has had good moments. The concern is that, in the main, they came against a collection of Rams linemen that seemed about as effective as an origami bowling ball. And that’s the worry. Despite 50% of the sample size taking place against a Rams offense lacking real playmakers and blocking, the Cardinals have still stumbled out of the gate to a bottom half of the league defense by EPA/play and despite that paper mache blocking on offer from the Rams in Week 2, have allowed a 43.9% success rate to rushes on first and second down, good for 5th worst in the league. With all the investment and re-jigging this summer in improving the standard on the interior of the defensive line, not one of Bilal Nichols, Justin Jones, Khyiris Tonga, or even Dante Stills, Roy Lopez or LJ Collier, has a positive PFF rush defense grade through two weeks. There are multiple individual defensive linemen who have more than twice the number of run stops and tackles than all of those 6 combined. At least the next opponent isn’t completely and utterly perfectly suited to take advantage of this particular weakness. Wait.
Yes, the Lions have a devastating rushing attack, and the undisputed best offensive line in the league, a genius playcaller and a head coach who emanates physicality. Does that really mean they’ll just come out and run all over the Cardinals from start to finish? Probably. It should be expected. Unless.
Nope. I’ve got nothing. The Lions will almost certainly run through this Cardinals front like a hot knife through water. In much the same way that ascending superstar edge rusher Aidan Hutchison may do with Kelvin Beachum (or, god forbid, Jackson Barton). This might be a uniquely troublesome match-up for the Cardinals in general. It might get ugly. And with that being said, if Arizona does fall to a loss on Sunday, and the might of naive expectation comes down with it, lashing mercilessly upon the shoulders of Gannon, and Kyler et al, remember the Rams. Remember the look-away throw to Elijah Higgins in the end zone. Remember the fumble that somehow ended up in the lap of Trey McBride for a touchdown. Remember Marvin. Remember James. Remember the look of desperation and despair on Matt Stafford’s face, confronted with another sack from Dennis Gardeck or Kupp being stonewalled by Budda, again. Losing to the Lions won’t change anything as to what we know about this team. What would we learn? Seriously. That the run defense is bad? That a young team, coming off an NFC Championship game that they led 24-7 at the half, might be further along in their development than this Cardinals group? Gee, what a shocker. It certainly won’t teach us whether the Cardinals are good, or not. The win over the Rams has already proven that.
And if they win? If Jameson Williams, and Amon-Ra St Brown, and LaPorta are all somehow held in check by SMB/Star/Mad Max/Williams? If the run defense holds up just enough? If Mack or Pappoe or Budda blows up Goff on a blitz? If Kyler goes nuclear again? Well that probably doesn’t teach us anything either. Or it means that the Cardinals are bonafide contenders, with a shot at the division title and some playoff wins in their future. But probably not. Probably not.
Either way, we’re good.