Christian Wilkins might not be the answer
It's been claimed he's Arizona's top free-agent target, but should he be?
Boy, wouldn’t it be awesome to see Christian Wilkins in a Cardinals jersey next year. Ignore the headline. I would love to see that big man taking snaps at defensive tackle for Arizona. I’d love it. It’d be awesome. A run-stuffing, pash-rushing, fire-breathing, ever-present man-mountain in the middle of that defensive line. Woah. That’d be so cool. So cool. And isn’t that what football is really all about? Acquiring the biggest, fastest, strongest people in the hope that they’re bigger/stronger/faster than their biggest, fastest, strongest people? Hoping and dreaming that our big, strong, fast man is just that little bit bigger/stronger/faster than theirs? Just enough so that he can win enough moments, enough times in enough places that we come out triumphant. Man, I wish it were that simple.
What do you mean, it’s not that simple?
Monti Ossenfurt has multiple holes to fill on the defensive line this off-season. Wilkins would certainly slide very nicely into one of them. In fact, he might even be the best player available to take one of these spaces. These statements are totally correct. But that’s only with the context removed. Add in just a smidge of that context and you find that this world of black and white statements becomes a big ol’ morass of grey.
We’ve touched on the main issue. Wilkins is awesome. A truly great player at his position. But is he awesome enough? Awesome enough to star on the Cardinals line, sure. On any NFL team’s line for that matter. But that’s why the Cards won’t be the only team going after Wilkins in free-agency. If we agree that Chris Jones is almost certainly returning to the Chiefs then Wilkins is clearly the best interior defensive lineman available in free-agency this summer, he may in fact be the best player available full-stop. This is a guy who has proven to be an elite run defender since being drafted in 2019 and had a career high 58 QB pressures, leading to 10 sacks from the interior just last year. This, along with the number of teams with reasonable cap-space, the cap jumping higher than expected and with Wilkins’ experience and success playing in a variety of systems from Flores to Fangio, has led multiple sites to project a $25m per year deal for Wilkins, over 4 years, with roughly $70m guaranteed. That’s a lot of cheddar.
In the NFL, you don’t go broke paying the best players the biggest money. Look at Patrick Mahomes. Even with his eye-watering paycheck it could be argued that it’s one of the best value deals in the league. He’s just that good. No, in the NFL you go broke by paying good players the biggest money. And as far as the defensive tackle position goes, $25m per year is up there with the biggest money. Let’s assume that the Chris Jones deal puts him near the Aaron Donald contract at around $30m per year. That would make Wilkins’ projected $25m per year over 4 years the 3rd largest defensive tackle contract by average annual value, and potentially the largest by total value. That’s not-quite-elite quarterback money. Like I said, a lot of cheddar.
I don’t know that Christian Wilkins is quite worth that.
$25m per year is larger than the contracts of Quinnen Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffrey Simmons, Javon Hargrave, Daron Payne and every other defensive tackle not named Aaron Donald and (potentially) Chris Jones. We know that Wilkins run defending ability is very much up there with these players. But at that price tag the ability to rush the passer should also be a given. Wilkins’ aforementioned 58 QB pressures put him a reasonable 9th in the league among interior linemen last year but a pass-rush win rate of 8.9% ranked him 73rd in the league, just two spots above AZ’s very own Roy Lopez. You remember Roy Lopez right? Good player, at the vet minimum contract. Those 58 pressures were also Wilkins’ best numbers in a year by nearly double and he has never reached a 10% pass rush win rate figure in a season. He’s a good-not-great pass rusher.
2023 was the high point in Wilkins’ career as a pass rusher. The same can’t be said for his run stopping. 2023 was the first time his PFF run-defense grade dropped below the 70 mark. Was this caused by the change in scheme to the Fangio system? Potentially. But we should also consider his age. At 28 years old, Wilkins is on the older side for a player coming off a rookie deal. I’m not arguing that Wilkins is on the decline at 28 years old, being 30 years old myself my brain won’t let me process that particular detail, but a 4 year deal takes him to age 32. Consider that the main stumbling block in negotiations between the Chiefs and Chris Jones last year seemed to revolve around Jones’ age and potential for falling off at the tail end of any agreed contract. At that point Jones had solidified himself as one of the best defensive players in the league, the leader of the Super Bowl winning Chiefs defense. And he was also 28 years old.
I would like to point out that i’m not bound to these numbers and grades from places like PFF. They can’t be the be all and end all. But they can provide context. Colour in the drawing. Confirm what we see on film. Christian Wilkins is a really good football player. But. He’s not one of the best of the best in the league at his position. Which is fine. Unless you’re the team paying him like one. Arizona signing Wilkins for less than $20m per year, or on a deal with very limited guaranteed money after Year 2 would be incredible value but based on murmurs from insiders, and the fact that Miami couldn’t come to an agreement with him on an extension, I just don’t think that’s likely.
If Wilkins is playing in Arizona next year, I’ll be rooting for him like he was my own son. He could be making $1 a year or $30m, it won’t matter in the moment when we’re watching him smash Brock Purdy to the ground or blowing up Kyren Williams behind the line of scrimmage. I’m a fan, I want good players on my football team. But if he’s suiting up for someone else next season, let’s not pretend Monti missed the mark.