The Pre-Draft Roster Check-In: Offense Edition
The draft's two weeks away. Let's take a look under the hood of the Cardinals' offensive personnel groups.
I’m sick of the draft. Sick of it. Sick of the discourse. Sick of the rumours. Sick of the mock drafts. Sick of it. We’ve reached the point in the draft media cycle where even the most click-baity of aggregator draft blogs have lost their enthusiasm. How many words can be written about trade-up packages to draft JJ McCarthy before they begin to lose meaning? The word ‘draft’ itself is now nothing but a convoluted jumble of letters. Opinions once hoisted high on the mast of film study and deep pondering now lie flat, bereft of the winds of optimism to propel them. The Cardinals might draft MHJ, or they might trade down. We knew that three months ago. We know just the same today. Thankfully, mercifully, by the grace of our lord Larry Fitzgerald, the draft is nearly upon us. Nearly there. We’ve carefully walked the plank, now just two weeks remain until we can take the plunge. Just two weeks. The misery over. Just two weeks left to go. Oh god, we still have two weeks left to go.
All this droning drivel about the draft has left me wondering if we even remember the current state of this Cardinals roster. And that’s important. An oft-forgotten factor in the potential success of rookies is the situation they are drafted into. Some players will succeed regardless of landing spot. And some won’t make it anywhere. But for most, playing time opportunities, scheme fit, coach buy-in, culture coherence and support network will play just as a large a role in their chance to succeed as any physical attribute, skill-level or work ethic. With that in mind, I thought it apt to look through the position groups on the Cardinals post-free-agency-pre-draft, dissecting the current state of the talent and depth of each. Quarterbacks. Running backs. Tight-end. Offensive line. It’s offense this week, defense next. Anything to avoid one more stinking word about JJ McCarthy.
Quarterback
2024 Spend- $51.3m (#6 in the NFL)
Kyler Murray
Desmond Ridder
Clayton Tune
TLDR: All-set, guns-blazing, and raring to go. For now.
After drafting Tune last year and trading for Ridder last month, this might be the one position group that the Cardinals can completely ignore in the draft this year. Desmond Ridder could be the perfect back-up to Kyler Murray. He was bad enough last year that even the most ardent Kyler hater would be hesitant to clamour for Ridder to start. Yet he has shown in glimpses that he can play well in the NFL. He has experience, yet should still have unexplored potential. He’s dangerous enough with his legs to be used similarly to Kyler in the run game. And he’s cheap. Like, cheap, cheap. Clayton Tune serves as the developmental, toolsy, third choice. No expectations, no problem. Then there’s Kyler.
Cards on the table, I adore Kyler Murray. I am a Kyler Murray stan. My clouded, biased brain would put every issue the Cardinals have faced since 2019 on factors outside of his control. He is my boy and I love him. So this hurts me. I have to whisper it in the lowest, faintest, kindest of tones. This might be the make-or-break year.
This Drew Petzing offense differs greatly from Kingsbury’s in that it uses this little thing called ‘complexity’. And so that’s a change for Kyler. After his return from injury last year, we saw some huge highs for him in this system, the games against the Eagles and Steelers (two play-off teams) in particular. It wasn’t all perfect, but the signs are good. With a full off-season under his belt and another year in the system, I’m confident that Kyler will be back to his awesome ways in 2024. But. Ultimately. ‘Good signs’ won’t cut it next season. If there’s another long-term injury. Or something short of top-10 QB play from Kyler. Gah. I can’t even bring myself to think about it, let alone write it. Bluntly speaking, from a salary cap perspective, the dead money incurred from a trade will be significantly less of a deterrent next year. But that’s only worth considering if he doesn’t play well. Or gets injured. Again. Best not to think about it.
Running Back
2024 Spend- $16.1m (#3)
James Connor
Michael Carter
Emari Demercado
DeeJay Dallas
TLDR: A Michelin Star Cheeseburger. Too expensive? Sure. But that’s a damn good and delicious, perfectly aged bit of beef right there.
One of the more perplexing moves Monti made this off-season was the signing of DeeJay Dallas from the Seahawks, making him one of the 30 highest paid running backs in the league and contributing to the Cardinals having the third most expensive running back room in the NFL. But it’s only confusing on the surface. With the new kick-off rules, it’s expected that the role of returner will move from generally a receiver role to be more suited to running backs. And DeeJay is one hell of a return man. Of all players with double-digit kick returns last season, Dallas ranked 7th in return average, and that’s before the rules change in his favour. But he only had 10 running back carries in 16 games played last year, so it’ll still be down the Connor/Carter combo to deliver most of the rushing output in 2024.
The 2024 draft isn’t overloaded with start running backs, which is fine for the Cardinals. We have James Connor, and he’s one of the more underrated skill position players in the league. A power runner, with overlooked grace and movement skills, he was awesome across both the man and zone running schemes employed by Petzing in 2023, and whilst his age is becoming slightly concerning at 29 years old, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down yet.
And he’s complemented perfectly by Carter and Demercado. They’re both smaller in stature, sure. But Carter has consistently shown he is more than just a back-up back in this league and Emari performed admirably in his brief stints last year. Getting younger and cheaper at the position might be for the best in the longer-term, but I’d happily take another year of watching JC chug his way to 1000 yards, regardless of cost, and you should too.
Wide Receiver
2024 Spend- $15.9m (#27)
Michael Wilson
Greg Dortch
Chris Moore
Zach Pascal
Andre Baccellia
TLDR: There’s a big hole at the top. A lovely big 6’3, 209 lbs, son of a hall-of-fame receiver hole.
This is an easy one. I’ve written previously about the big hole in the receiver room. Even with the promising Michael Wilson and rocket-fuelled Greg Dortch, this is a room short on depth, and star talent. And unless you have Patrick Mahomes, that’s an issue in the modern NFL.
Wilson had an up-and-down, at times injured, but mainly good, rookie season. Hardly a ringing endorsement, but it’s the truth. He displayed good route-running and zone awareness with surprising yards-after-contact skills and some big boy contested catches. But at most, he’s a number two. Given the injury concerns, more likely a really good number three.
Dortch made the move from primarily slot to primarily outside in 2023 and he returned some incredibly memorable moments. With Rondale and Hollywood gone, we could see a return to the slot for Dortch the Torch where at 5’7 he would seem to be best suited to play. But I don’t know. That Greg made some real big, strong man catches on the outside last year. At the very least he has proven he can play across the formation. And more opportunities to scream “You just got Dortched” at the TV on Sundays are always welcome.
But we know this room is ready for a draft pick. A high draft pick. And some lower down the order ones too. I’ve written thousands and thousands of words on this, so I’ll leave it this time. But a room of just Wilson and Dortch ain’t cutting it Monti, the ball’s in your court now.
Tight-End
2024 Spend- $4.3m (#31)
Trey McBride
Elijah Higgins
Blake Whiteheart
TLDR: A Rollercoaster without a safety harness. Objectively the most fun, but definitely missing a boring, yet important, piece.
What a break-out year for Trey McBride in 2023. Firmly putting himself towards the top of anyone’s tight-end pyramid. Over 800 yards, 400 of which were after the catch. A quick, explosive, high-flying, all-hurdling weapon whose connection with Kyler Murray was the single biggest positive on the field for the Cardinals in 2023. But the nerd in me would tell you that Elijah Higgins was the most fun part of the tight-end room last year. Not his play necessarily, but his usage.
Whilst Trey lined-up mainly as a traditional receiving tight-end, either in the slot or inline blocking, a large proportion of Higgins’ snaps were either out wide or as a lead-blocker in the backfield. This multi-positional style usage is reminiscent of how the Niners use All-World full-back Kyle Juszczyk, and that’s very exciting. Higgins is a converted wide-receiver, so his fine to below-par play in this position last year was to be expected, but with another year under his belt, or the addition of someone more suited, this ‘queen of the chessboard’ player could unlock another element of this Petzing offense. Being able to get four true receiving talents out into routes from 21 personnel and then running with a big lead blocker next play with the same group?! Close your mouth honey, you’re starting to drool a little.
We’re missing a true blocking tight-end. A big, slow-footed Geoff Swaim sort, you know the type. But they’re a relatively undervalued archetype, so whether it be through the draft or the latter part of the off-season, you can be sure this will be addressed.
Offensive Line
2024 Spend- $60.7m (#6)
Paris Johnson Jr
Will Hernandez
Hjalte Froholdt
Jonah Williams
Elijah Wilkinson
Kelvin Beachum
Trystan Colon
Evan Brown
Jon Gaines II
TLDR: Paris Johnson Jr and the (pretty solid) Misfit Toys.
Offensive line is a ‘weakest link’ position group. That is, it is better to have good players across the line than a few stars and some scrubs. This is especially so recently, with the advent of pass rushers like Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons lining up anywhere they like along the defensive line in order to wreak maximum havoc. Plainly, particularly in pass protection, it’s no good having an All-Pro right tackle if your left guard can’t stand up to a stern breeze. I’m guessing that specific example hit some Cardinals fans in a sensitive place, especially those that noticed that we re-signed Elijah Wilkinson.
Elijah aside, the Cardinals offensive line was surprisingly competent in 2023, but it would be remiss to review it as a whole.
Center
Hjalte Froholdt was one of those lovely surprises. A career back-up, he was thrust into the starting role and was decidedly above average for most of the year. Despite being one of the cheapest starting centers in the league, PFF ranked him as the 14th best pass-blocking center in 2023, and his ranking of 19th in run-blocking didn’t do justice to his many marauding rolls into the second and third level on lots of the explosive runs the Cardinals ripped off last year. A longer-term, higher-ceiling option would be nice to add in the draft, but the addition of Evan Brown from Seattle this off-season, along with the return from injury of last years 4th round pick Jon Gaines II leads me to believe that the Cardinals are set at center, for 2024 at least.
Guard
Will Hernandez is held in very high regard by Cardinals fans, and it’e easy to see why. A completely competent, if unspectacular, right guard on a cheap deal. He’s the sort of set-and-forget player you can rely on to not make big mistakes and just be a solid-stout boulder in the interior of the offensive line. He’s great. But I would argue that he benefits from comparison with regards to the ever changing garrison of names we’ve been treated to at left guard since he signed two years ago. That ‘weak-link’ idea? For the Cardinals, left guard has been so weak for so long it’s as if it was made of candyfloss and regret.
Elijah Wilkinson, Carter O’Donnell, Trystan Colon & Dennis Daley all took snaps at left guard last year for the Cardinals. Colon was good, in limited time, but that left 738 plays at left guard for the others. 405 of those were some of the most woeful snaps of pass protection you are likely to see. Colon is back, and that’s great, but it would be great to see the Cardinals actually attempt to address interior offensive line in the draft for once. I still see visions of Tyler Linderbaum and Creed Humphrey suiting up in Cardinals red in my dreams.
Tackle
After drafting him number 6 overall last year, Paris Johnson Jr wasn’t immediately an All-Pro tackle, but he showed enough promise, playing out of position, that maybe one day he will be. With the gut-wrenching, but expected, departure of DJ Humphries, he should now get the opportunity to play in his preferred position at left tackle. And if it works out like we expect, that should be us set at one of the most important positions on the field for the next 5-8 years. We’ll take that.
At right tackle we bring Jonah Williams into the party. A highly drafted tackle for the Bengals, he struggled on the left in 2022 before a move to the right last year. He wasn’t great there either. He’s an expensive stop-gap for now, on a contract that’s either a reasonable deal over two years, or an expensive one year mistake. He has pedigree, that’s for sure. A worthy bet. But if a tackle falls to the Cardinals at 27 or 35, Monti should be looking to pounce. If the rookie’s a project, he can sit behind Jonah for a year, no problem. And if he’s awesome, we get the most expensive swing tackle in the league. Certainly better than the alternative.
The Cardinals are currently slated to spend $148,409,644 on offense in 2024. That’s 7th most in the league. With a couple of additions in the draft, could this be a top-10 offense in 2024? Yes. With a bullet. Join me next week where we’ll look at the defense where it’s a decidedly, emphatically different story.
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I write every week about the Arizona Cardinals, in some form or other.