The 'Storage Wars' approach to Drafting
We'll find something for sure.
NFL organisations are generally stupid. At best, misguided. At worst, just plain arrogant. The overestimation of one’s own ability to identify talent in the draft has led to the precipitous fall of many an NFL General Manager. Tripping over their own shoelaces in a desperate bid to draft ‘their guy’, whatever the cost. Who needs 3rd round picks, 4th round picks, future picks? Not this NFL GM. Because I know that this guy, ‘my guy’, is certain to be the job saver, the franchise saviour, needed to turn my team around.
It can work in certain moments, sure. But as a general mantra to live your professional football evaluating life by, it’s lunacy. For every trade up for a Patrick Mahomes, there’s sixteen examples of a Josh Rosen, Justin Fields, Bryce Young. Talented prospects that, for some reason or other, fail to live up to their lofty expectations. And that’s the crux of the issue. ‘Some reason or other’. We’re all dealing with imperfect information here. Even NFL teams, with their analytics departments, vast scouting teams, medical reports, combine interviews, top-30 visits, background checks and inside information from coaches don’t know for sure that any given prospect will work out. You can check google reviews, tripadvisor, professional critics, friends’ recommendations and you still won’t know for sure if that new restaurant you’re going to will give you food poisoning.
This is why, in most cases, it is better to have more bites at the apple. More darts to throw. More draft picks. Remember the TV show ‘Storage Wars’? That’s the NFL draft. And it’s always better to have more storage units than just one you think you might’ve seen a safe hiding in the back of. It might be filled with gold, sure. But it might be filled with used toilet paper.
The onus is on fans to be excitable, be idiotic, to make profound proclamations that “we must draft this guy, my favourite mock drafter said he’d be good”. Hell, just yesterday I wondered if the Cardinals should have traded up from 27. But General Managers have to be more reasonable. More nuanced. More aware of their shortcomings. Usually, they aren’t. See Terry Fontenot in Atlanta or Jacksonville’s Trent Baalke. Thankfully for the Cardinals, ours is. We already sat on a treasure trove of picks, thanks to dealings in last years draft. Then Monti went and traded back again this year, from 35 to 43, then again in the 3rd round. The net gain? Pick No. 82. In 2010, the 82nd pick was used on Emmanuel Sanders, a man with over 9,000 career receiving yards in the NFL.
Having an opinion is great. To be admired. But let’s not go overboard. For the fans crying that we traded out of the chance to draft Cooper DeJean or Johnny Newton, can we at least be honest? Even the most dedicated fan has significantly less information about these players than any NFL front office. The fact Monti elected not to draft them isn’t out of spite or lack of effort. The Cardinals looked at all the information available and decided to take their chances elsewhere. They traded out of the chance to draft DeJean or McKinstry, two cornerbacks, to draft Max Melton, a cornerback and pick up an extra third round pick, where they drafted Elijah Jones, another cornerback. Now, I’d grant you permission to kick your toys out the stroller if, gazing upon your crystal ball, you could see for certain that McKinstry turned into a star outside corner, and neither Max nor Elijah made it to their second contracts. But you don’t have a crystal ball. Neither does the NFL. They have darts, and a very small board to aim at. Thanks to Monti’s wheeling and dealing, the Cardinals have had 7 darts to throw so far, all in the first 90 attempts. That’s a much better option than the 3 most teams had. Especially when the whole league is terrible at darts.
That’s your whack for today. I’ll be doing some in depth writing on our shiny new draft selections once the dust has settled.
I write every week about the Arizona Cardinals.