Wk1: Cardinals @ Bills; Rush Lane Integrity
What's the big deal with Buffalo wings anyway?
The Cardinals cruise into the 2024 NFL season as an off-kilter Catamaran might sail the Caribbean. On one side, Marvin Harrison Jr is taking in the glorious rays on the upper deck whilst James Conner sits with his feet dangling carefree, reading the Art of War by Sun Tzu for the seventeenth time. Only the rare tickle of sea spray dancing faintly on his bare soles interrupts his concentration, whilst Kyler sits stoically, the rolling blue fields of ocean stretching beyond the constraints of his eyes. Paris Johnson Jr just made another batch of piña coladas, Will Hernandez and Greg Dortch are playing tag. McBride has dozed off, his tilted straw hat too late for his sun-kissed cheeks. Drew Petzing stands above it all, imperious. Calm. Even-keeled. He knows his crew is ready. Ready to stake their claim as one of the top-10 half catamarans in the whole Caribbean. Maybe even top-5.
The other side of the ship?
Ermm.
Well, BJ Ojulari fell through a gaping hole in the hull some weeks ago. Darius Robinson dove in after him, but who knows when he’ll be back. Cam Thomas jumped ship for a diamond-encrusted party boat blasting Bad Blood on repeat. And despite the best-laid bucketing efforts of Budda, Rabbit and Jalen, the water level just keeps rising. Zaven and Gardeck have tried everything. Planks, nails, driftwood, the spare sails, LJ Collier. It seems that nothing on this ship can plug this great, big hole. Captain Gannon’s not worried, or so he keeps yelling to all within earshot, furiously treading water in the hold. Sure, maybe Monti forgot to pack a hole-patch-kit. But we still have Nick Rallis, maybe his furious attempts to ‘Derren Brown’ the hull back together have a chance. Or not. Is that Elijah Jones over there? Why is he on fire? This all would have been so much easier had Hassan Reddick just come along for the ride.
All the while the rest of the cornerbacks perch perilously atop the birds nest, furiously arguing over who’s using the telescope. And the dark mass draws ever nearer on the horizon. No beaches or palm trees or coconuts to be seen. Faint silhouettes are jumping through fragile tables and the odour of stale hot sauce hangs dank in the air. Starling Thomas V rubs his eyes in disbelief. How the hell did we make it to Buffalo?
The Strong Side
Cards O v Bills D
Any chance the Cardinals have of starting the 2024 season with a win lies with the offense. That’s not rocket science. This is a group that finished 2023 as one of the top, ascending rushing offences in the league, blending a wide variety of blocking schemes, a talented running backs group and a devastatingly mobile QB to finish second in EPA/rush in the league from Week 9 onwards and the receive the highest rush grade in the league from PFF. Now, adding one of the most promising wide receiver prospects in recent memory in the draft, a healthy Kyler Murray with a full pre-season under his belt and yet more exciting new toys for Petzing to play with at TE and RB in Tip Reiman and Trey Benson, it would not be a surprise for this Cardinals offense to be one of the most fun, diverse and difficult to deal with units in the NFL. That’s the hope anyway. And, despite the persistent success of Bills HC Sean McDermott, and the weapons on this Bills defensive line, this Week 1 match-up may be a great place to show the world jut how ready this offense is.
Gone are the days of Poyer and Hyde rivalling Budda and Jalen as the best safety tandem in the league. The back end of the Buffalo defense is revamped and in flux. Add to this, the season-ending injury to all-star linebacker Matt Milano, and the middle of this unit looks open and ready for feasting. Without Milano last year, the Bills struggled to the 6th worst rushing defense by EPA down the stretch. And despite the additions to the passing game, one would imagine this will once again be a Cardinals offense dependent on it’s rushing for consistent offensive gains, especially early in the year. Good rush attack + bad rush defence = very good for Cardinals, see Philadelphia or Seattle last year.
However, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson may not be household names just yet, but they make this Buffalo team a tremendously difficult prospect to pass against. Leading the team to the second best pass defense by EPA in the final 5 games of the year in 2023, both receiving 80+ PFF coverage grades for the season in their 550ish coverage snaps each through the season. An exciting match-up then, with the talents of MHJ, McBride, Wilson and Dortch. For such a new-look room, with a rookie, sophomore and 3rd-year player leading the way, I feel worryingly confident. I have no problem with envisioning this group winning their individual match-ups just enough to give Kyler the options downfield to make explosive gains in the passing game. Is that weird? I’m sure I should be more stressed about it. Alas, most of the angst on offense should be pointed squarely at this offensive line.
Better than the sum of its parts. That’s the best way to describe the Cardinals O-line in 2023. Will Hernandez is under-appreciated nationally. Paris Johnson is on the right path. Hjalte Froholdt was a delightful surprise. But, to this we add the starting center of the worst interior offensive line group in the league in ‘23 in Evan Brown and a so-so left tackle to play on the right-side in Jonah Williams. And whilst Monti himself could have given the Cardinals better LG play than whatever was served up at times last year, these signings hardly fill the confidence meter. And they will be tested this week. Epenesa, Rousseau, Oliver and an ageing Von Miller may not sound boot-quivering, but this is an ascendant group, full of first and second round picks, with difference makers inside and out. Ed Oliver had 11 sacks last season, just 3 less than the entire Cardinals interior defensive line. If the Cardinals O-line can pass this initial test, especially in pass-protection, it will be the single strongest indicator that this offense is truly on course to level-up this year.
The Weak Side
Cardinals D v Bills O
The Bills might destroy the Cardinals defense. As in, obliterate. Liquidate. Demolish. Annihilate. Choose your synonym. It could be so punishing that all hope departs. That fans would be straight on to checking out the top prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft were it not for the gushing tears that blinded them, filling a pool of despair in their lap. Josh Allen is that good. Kincaid and Cook are that good. The Bills offense was one of the best by most advanced statistics at the start of last year, and they still fired their offensive coordinator, proceeded to win the final 5 games of the regular season on the bounce, win the division, and come within a missed field goal of taking the eventual Super Bowl champions to overtime in the playoffs. A tremendous O-line, a star young tight-end, a diverse receiving group, a supremely talented running back and either the best or second-best quarterback in the league, excluding the alien that is Patrick Mahomes. Up against a Cardinals defense that very much still has the potential to be the worst in the league.
On the other hand.
An ageing left tackle and a new center. Not even the best tight-end in his own rookie class. An unproven receiving group that’s projected to start Mack Hollins, a man that hasn’t been able to stick on multiple NFL teams. A small running back with no proven back-up. A quarterback capable of Carson Wentz levels of boneheaded-ness on a play to play basis, provided he hasn’t already concussed himself slamming into a linebacker earlier on in the game. Against a Cardinals defense that’s short on firepower upfront, sure. But, capable, emerging linebackers, including PFF darling Mack Wilson (81.5 defensive grade in 2023). A young and feisty cornerback room led by Super Bowl winning starter Sean Murphy-Bunting. And a safety trio that blends experience, youth, speed and power. Sure, the floor is that this unit is the worst defense in the league, again. But the ceiling is considerably higher now than it was 12 months ago.
Against the Bills, it will be decided up front. Josh Allen will break contain and either find a target 40 yards downfield or maul his way to a first down on at least a couple of occasions on Sunday. It will happen. The key is limiting how many times. It may actually suit the Cardinals to not have a superstar pash-rusher in this instance. The likes of Zaven Collins and Dimukeje haven’t proven they can beat an NFL tackle consistently, so don’t ask them to. Set the edge. Rush lane integrity. Rush as a group. The boring things. Keep Allen contained, hope for some pressure from the interior and pray your cornerbacks can stay attached. Unless Zaven has taken a big leap this summer, any hope of an explosive pass rush to start the year died with BJ Ojulari and Darius Robinson. So why not make it an advantage?
I could not be more excited for the 2024 season. Yes, there’s trepidation, worry and stress. But it could be okay, even good. On paper, this team is significantly more talented, deeper and ready to compete than September 2023. On paper. But the NFC West still projects as a brutally tough division and who knows what awful surprises lie in wait. I think the Cardinals keep it close in Buffalo, but that Josh Allen ultimately wins out at the end.
Just kidding.
Catamaran 46-0 Bills.
I’ll be previewing and reviewing the fortunes of the Cardinals every week this season. If you enjoyed even the smallest part of this post, it’d be super cool if you subscribed. It’s free, just let’s me know you liked it and all that.