The Pre-Draft Roster Check-in: Defense Edition
The offense needs one new weapon, this defense needs an army.
The clouds of the crystal ball grow dark. Brooding. There’s just one week left.
I can almost taste it. Seven days from now, the dust will be settling on the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. 32 picks made, 32 lifelong dreams fulfilled. 32 young men entering into a contract of expectation with millions adoring fans, most of whom they will never meet. But who among them, and how many, will be doing so on the Arizona Cardinals? And what situation will they be joining.
Last week we looked at the offense. A group that seems to be a wide receiver away from greatness. From relevancy, at least. Here, we’ll go through each position group on the defense. All of them. Pre-draft-post-free-agency. Looking at money spent, talent, depth, and what would be needed to bring each up to a positive group when taken as part of the wider NFL. Spoiler alert, there’s a lot of work to be done. With all of them.
Edge
2024 Spend- $15.8m (#27 in the NFL)
Zaven Collins
B.J. Ojulari
Dennis Gardeck
L.J. Collier
Victor Dimukeje
Cam Thomas
TLDR: In desperate, desperate, desperate need of a star
If you could combine the skillsets of Dennis Gardeck and Zaven Collins you’d have a pretty good player. After his move from off-ball linebacker, Zaven showed roughly what you’d expect in his first year on the edge. His size and nose for the ball enabled him to hold up in the run game (21st ranked edge run-defender per PFF) but his lack of hip flexibility, burst and pass-rush moves showed up in ranking of 77th as a pass-rusher. Don’t like PFF grades? Sure. He ranked 72nd in pass-rush-win-rate among edge players. We can expect some improvement with another off-season at the position under his belt but I think we’d be kidding ourselves if we thought anything other than the ceiling here being that of a rotational, secondary edge player.
The same, but the opposite, can be said of Dennis Gardeck. He can’t be relied upon the set the edge in the run game, but let him pin his ears back in the pass game and it’s a different story. 13th in the NFL in pass-rush-win-rate. Not bad for an undrafted special teams player.
However, it’s exceedingly difficult in today’s NFL to build a defense around such siloed skill-sets. Hence why the Cardinals have taken so many bites in the draft at this position since the departure of Chandler Jones. Last years second-round pick, B.J. Ojulari was hampered by injury throughout training camp and into the season and whilst he improved throughout the year, can he really be relied upon to lead this group in 2024? No.
It’s the most basic, simple, pea-brained analysis, but this unit just needs a true top-15 edge rusher. Not necessarily top-5. Just an actual number one edge player. Someone to set and forget. It would allow Zaven & B.J. & Dennis to drop into their natural places in the pecking order. Gardeck can be the designated pass-rusher, Zaven the run-defender who can drop into coverage. And offences would have to think twice about assigning two opposite Ojulari, giving him a much better chance to develop and succeed.
It’s a simple solution for a reason. True, blue-chip edge players are like spice of the Dune universe; scarce enough to wage war over. There are maybe two in the entire 2024 draft class. Unless it’s a true priority for Monti, it’s unlikely we draft either of them. But looking at this group, I think it should be.
Interior Defensive Line
2024 Spend- $18.4m (#22)
Justin Jones
Bilal Nichols
Dante Stills
Roy Lopez
Khyiris Tonga
Ben Stille
TLDR: Installing an expensive, second-hand exhaust on the same ol’ beat-up truck.
Despite overall poor efficiency at stopping the run or rushing the passer, I quite liked the rotating door of characters at defensive tackle last year. It seems the idea was, if we don’t have any plus players at the position, let’s at least make sure they stay bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, ready to give 100% effort on every play. And that’s how 7 players ended up on the field for at least 120 snaps for the Cardinals on the interior of the defensive line last year. Carlos Watkins would have made it 8 if not for injury. And so they rotated in and out. In and out. Play by play. Relying on fresh legs and effort in lieu of overwhelming talent. And we should expect much the same in 2024.
The acquisitions of Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols weren’t the additions Cardinals fans were dreaming of in the opening hours of free-agency, but they were the ones we got. And they’re fine. They might even be good. They’ve certainly proven to be reliable in their previous homes, if altogether unspectacular.
But they’re expensive. And most likely only a small improvement on the cabal of 2023. It’s currently Jones & Nichols replacing Ledbetter & Strong. That doesn’t fill me with boundless enthusiasm. But there’s hope. Maybe Byron Murphy II or Johnny Newton falls to us in the draft. Or maybe Dante Stills can make good on the promising signs from his rookie year. Something is needed. Something more than this. I can’t watch Kyren Williams run for 301 yards on 36 carries in his 2 games against us again this year.
Linebacker
2024 Spend- $10.7m (#25)
Kyzir White
Mack Wilson
Krys Barnes
Owen Pappoe
TLDR: And not a Steve Keim in sight.
Much like Leo DiCaprio with women under the age of 25, it seems that Monti and Gannon have a type. Kyzir White, Mack Wilson and Krys Barnes are all either 6’1 or 6’2, weigh between 229 and 246 pounds and are especially suited to pass coverage. In the modern NFL, this is the way. You cannot survive the digs and the crossers that dominate the passing schemes of McVay and Shanahan without linebackers who can competently drop into coverage. In theory, this room can do that. In theory, this is how you should construct a linebacker room. Cheaper contracts, later round picks. Quick-footed flyers over heavy-set stompers. In theory, we can expect another later round pick to round out the room. In practice, we’ll have to wait and see.
Or, you know, we could just take one with our first pick in the draft when there are much better options on the board and have them switch to another position and therefore fail to address the problem at linebacker at all so somehow think we should take another linebacker the next year with our first pick and just repeat the… *deep breath*
He’s gone, he’s gone. Steve Keim can’t hurt us anymore.
Safety
2024 Spend- $34.4m (#1)
Budda Baker
Jalen Thompson
Andre Chachare
TLDR: What if De Niro and Pacino filmed a terribly written comedy in 2024. Very expensive. Two stars. Questionable substance. No depth. Or recent success. But man I’d still be excited to see it.
The Cardinals, in 2024, will be paying the safety position more than any other team in the league. About 37% of all defensive spending. That’s not good roster management. It’s a less valuable position than cornerback or edge. These are facts.
But.
A healthy and happy Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson combo is comparable to any safety duo in the league. They are both electric playmakers with complementary skillsets. Budda attacking ball carriers with the ferocity and finesse of a bullet train, Jalen sitting in just the right spot in coverage. Both filling in gaps like a liquid does it’s container. And they’re both home-grown talents on second contracts, that’s so rare on this Cardinals team that it feels like a hallucination. Budda sets not only the tone, but the standard of work-ethic and winning mentality that this defense means to build around. These are factors that can’t be taken into account by a PFF grade or interception numbers. For so long, he has been the lifeblood, the driving force, the star-at-the-top-of-the-tree, of this defence.
But.
Budda will be 29 in October. He’s in the final year of his deal. With no guaranteed salary remaining. This year might be a ‘prove you still have it season’. Or his final one in Arizona. He may have even played his last snap as a Cardinal. There might not be any blue-chip safety prospects in this draft, but there’s some intriguing ones in the middle rounds. Malik Mustapha, Dadrian Taylor-Demerson, Calen Bullock. All projects, all need work. Whether it’s a new starter for this year or next, or just more depth pieces, it’s clear this group needs young additions. Though no one could truly replace Budda.
Cornerback
2024 Spend- $13.9m (#25)
Sean Murphy-Bunting
Garrett Williams
Kei'Trel Clark
Divaad Wilson
Starling Thomas V
TLDR: How big is this bet on Sean Murphy-Bunting?
This is a group we can’t really evaluate until we see what happens in the draft. If nothing major happens, then this is underwhelming to say the least. Garrett Williams showed signs of a star nickel career going forward. Sean Murphy-Bunting won a Super Bowl. Kei’Trel Clark really tries. After that, I’m struggling for positives.
Wilson and Thomas displayed mainly that their NFL careers will be determined largely on special teams. Kei’Trel really does have a motor, but at his size, playing on the outside will always be a losing game. So he projects as what? Williams’ back-up long-term? The big question here is Murphy-Bunting. A promising young player on the Tom Brady Buccaneers, he played on a one-year prove it deal with the Titans in 2023 and seemed to prove, not much? 65.2% pass completion allowed, 91.9 passer rating allowed, 10 penalties. How that parlayed into a 3 year $21m contract with $14m guaranteed, I’m not sure. It’s not the sort of deal that will cripple a team, but it is confusing. Monti obviously sees something untapped in him. I guess you could squint and see a good starting cornerback in there. I just hope he doesn’t see star outside cornerback. I can almost guarantee there’s none of those currently on this roster.
So to the draft. There’s plenty of options. I highlighted some of my favourites here. The key is there’s plenty of them. The Cardinals are probably in range to draft DeJean, Wiggins, McKinstry, Rakestraw, Melton, Lassiter, Green, Hart, the list goes on. There’s so many that it might be worth taking a couple of them. But I don’t know if all the holes on this defense will make that a viable solution.
One first-round pick might solve the offense. I’m not convinced four would solve this defense. As a reminder, this was the worst defense in the whole, lovely, big NFL last season. 31st in EPA against, 32nd in Opposition Success Rate. Yes, there were some promising rookies in Dante Stills and Garrett Williams. But this whole side of the ball needs more than the make-up-on-a-pig approach offered in Free-Agency to turn its fortunes around. It almost certainly needs more than just this 2024 draft.
If you missed it, I did the offense last week. It was an ever so slightly more chipper article than this one here. I write about the Cardinals every week. Please consider subscribing. Only together can we form Zaven and Gardeck into one single super-edge-rusher to rule them all.